When evaluating basketball prospects, sometimes you just see IT. You can't really explain it (even though that's exactly what I'm about to do in this article), but you know a guy has IT. A player may not have eye popping statistics, they may be on an average mid-major team, or they may have a few puzzle pieces that they haven't been able to fully connect, but they have IT. And you know, in the back of your mind, that when they finally start trying to complete the puzzle by starting with the corners, that IT factor is going to quickly turn into true tangible results. That's the gut reaction I had when I started watching Cedric Coward earlier this year as he was finishing up his junior season at Eastern Washington. Sure, his stats were solid, and he was the best player on his team, but solid numbers in the Big Sky isn't exactly equal to solid numbers in other conferences (no offense to the Big Sky, I still love you). Still, something about him immediately made me inch towards the edge of my seat. He clearly had the puzzle pieces, and it looked like he had finally figured out the proper strategy to get them to properly fit with one-another. That's why I wasn't shocked when he announced his intentions to transfer, and so I waited until he decided on his next stop to write this article. That decision came just a few days ago when Coward announced he was heading to Washington State. Now that we know where his next home is, allow me to break down his game and explain the impact he could have on this level and the next.
pc: Eastern Washington University Athletic
Player Profile:
Coward had a prolific high-school career while playing at Central High-School in Fresno, California. After racking up accolades at the high-school level, he would begin his collegiate career at Willamette University, a Division Three program in Oregon. Obviously, the 6'6" and 210lb Coward was too naturally gifted to be playing at this level, and his statistics while playing for the Bearcats prove this. He was one of the best Division Three players in the nation as a freshman, which led to him transferring to Eastern Washington after the season, where he would spend his next two seasons. In his first season with the Eagles he primarily came off the bench to play the role of an efficient scorer and lockdown defender. Despite only playing 21 minutes a night, Coward led the team in steals and was second in blocks. It wasn't until his second season (his Junior year) where Coward blossomed into the team's star. He averaged 15.4 points per game, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1 steal, .9 blocks, on super-efficient splits of 56.5% from the field, 38.3% from three, and 89.5% from the free-throw line. He earned a unanimous spot on the Big Sky First-Team All-Conference team and led the Eagles to a Big Sky regular season championship before falling in the conference tournament.
Interior Scoring:
Something I like about Coward is how his offensive game has developed throughout his collegiate career. Based on his offensive growth from season-to-season, I have to assume that he has an excellent work ethic. For example, in his first season at Eastern Washington he only took 33 threes, making 13 of them. This past season, he took a whopping 133 and made 51. He increased his volume by over 300% and maintained his efficiency. That said, the one aspect of his offensive game that he has managed to maintain throughout his career is his interior scoring. I don't know much about Coward's high-school days, but my guess is that he wasn't playing on the perimeter much. Why? Well not only because he came into college not shooting many outside shots, but also because he loves to post-up in the paint. You never see guys who play the two and three post-up at the rate that he does. On almost every play where he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he is going to make his way into the paint and attempt a post-up at least once. This has its positives and negatives, but it's a really unique aspect of his game that I want to highlight in addition to his overall interior scoring abilities.
Here you have examples of his off-ball post-ups and his on-ball post-ups. These are all successful attempts, and the main reason for that being that he's backing down smaller defenders. In addition to that, once Coward gets the ball near the rim, he's able to use his strength and vertical pop to finish the majority of his looks no matter how much contact he absorbs. This is especially evident in the first clip where he's able to finish through two defenders under the rim. I don't mind him doing this because he obviously has great feel for these plays, but I do think he can get carried away at times. He's not super successful trying these against bigger defenders, but he still tries to from time-to-time. Now that he's able to extend his game to the perimeter there is no real need for him to attempt to put bigs in the paint. This is a unique tool that's super effective when properly used, so I'm glad he has it in his game. I only hope that he continues to fine tune this going forward.
This isn't his only method of scoring in the interior. Coward is a super versatile offensive threat with a ton of natural tools that allow him to be a very effective rim attacker. He can find these opportunities with the ball in his hands, he can work off-ball to get to his spots, and he grabs offensive rebounds at an elite level which results in easy put-backs. We will talk about the rebounding stuff later, but let's go ahead and go over the other stuff while we're here.
The first clip shows off another way Coward is able to generate interior points in the half-court, that being via cuts. He's a pretty active cutter away from the ball, because much like his post-up looks, once he gets near the rim he's pretty difficult to stop. The second clip is the more telling example of his ability to score in the paint. His improved three-point shooting has strengthened his interior and mid-range scoring, as defenders are now forced to closeout to him beyond the arc. That's what happens here, and he's then able to blow by his man and put up a soft touch floater over the interior defender. He's not the best at getting all the way to the rim on these looks because he doesn't have a great handle, so the decision to take the floater here was probably the correct one. For some players who don't have the tightest handle, attacking the rim in this way would be a nightmare scenario. For Coward, who can knock down the mid-range shot and floaters at a high-level, it's not the biggest deal.
Then there is just pure, raw athletic talent and leaping ability. He combines his vertical pop with solid size and length to be a ruthless above the rim threat in transition. He may not be the greatest at getting to the rim with the ball in his hands in the half-court, but once he picks up speed, he's incredibly difficult to stop. Again, you can see here that he doesn't have fantastic ball control, but in the open court that doesn't matter much. I could've told you how this play was going to end the instant I saw that the only defender between him and the hoop was standing under it. I shouldn't have to go into depth breaking down a clip like this, it's pretty self-explanatory, but it's important to illustrate Coward's athletic tools that allow the rest of his game to flourish.
Mid-Range Scoring:
The next stop in the scoring arsenal as we work our way farther from the basket is the mid-range game. Much like his three-point shot, this is an aspect of Coward's game that has gotten better and better over time. That soft touch you saw on the floater translates to his in-between game, and I am of the opinion that this may be the prettiest aspect of his offensive skillset. His ability to not only make these shots, but also create these shots at a high level has thoroughly impressed me. This is where I see the most promise from him as a shot creator, as while he is a great outside shooter, he looks most comfortable creating his shot in the mid-range.
I wanted to bridge the gap between his inside scoring and mid-range scoring, so the first two clips show Coward using a post-up to create his mid-range shot. The first one shows him using his normal "nearly in the paint" post-up before turning over his shoulder for the shot. The second shows him backing an opponent down on the perimeter before spinning off into the paint and taking the shot over the big man. The third and fourth clips show him getting the ball via an off-ball set up, before subsequently creating his own shot. He attacks a closeout before wisely rising up for the shot before the help defender can make it to him. Then he uses a screen to get into the paint before bodying his defender and threatening to hit the role man to eventually disable both defenders in his way before taking the shot. The only true off-ball look is in the final clip, where Coward rises up for his shot after immediately receiving the pass. Here he's actually operating as an off-ball screener before flashing to the elbow for his shot. His overall mid-range game thoroughly impressed me, and it's something that I don't have any issues with. Some guys overdo mid-range shots and harm their overall efficiency, but not Coward. He takes them when they're given to him, and most importantly he knocks them down.
Outside Shooting:
Finally, what we've all been waiting for, the three-point shooting. As I said, this is a part of Coward's game that has come a long way over the years and is now an integral part of his scoring arsenal. In fact, I would argue this is by far the most important aspect of his scoring arsenal. Not only do the shots themselves go a long way, but his ability to make them at an efficient clip also opens up his offensive game in other ways. The way he was able to better his mid-range game at the same time as his outside game is an incredible example of player development. He can now attack oncoming defenders and get into his mid-range shot. If they stop that too he has found ways to effectively score inside. He has become a well-rounded offensive asset, and that stems from his perimeter shot making.
Coward is still primarily a catch-and-shoot operative from beyond the arc. That said, there's nothing wrong with this. When I say catch-and-shoot I don't just mean he steps out to the perimeter here and there and knocks down the occasional corner or top of the key three. No, Coward finds these shots with excellent off-ball movement and by perfectly executing drawn up plays. This is something that really stood out as I studied his game. He is always moving, and always fully locked in on the game going on around him. He manages to always be in the right spot at the right time. This is something that a ton of players struggle with, but not Coward. I have absolutely zero questions about his motor, competitive edge, or willingness to do what it takes to win. He seems like the ultimate selfless player, which goes a much longer way than you may expect. In a way, this willingness to go from the star on some plays to a role player on others is why he has turned into such a great outside shooter, because he's asked to make these shots in so many different ways.
And BOOM, just as I say that Coward becomes the star. Sure, he isn't as prolific as an outside shot creator as he is an off-ball shooter. That said, he still has very real shot creation skills from this part of the floor. If he were in a system that didn't run as many set plays as Eastern Washington, there's a world where he takes way more of these shots. Personally, I think he's more than capable of increasing his self-created outside shot volume. While he doesn't have the tight handle he may need to create something out of nothing, he's great at changing speeds and quickly accelerating and decelerating. He's getting better at knocking down these step-back threes, and his mechanics do not falter in the slightest on these attempts. That may just be the most important aspect of his outside shooting, his excellent mechanics. Quick and sharp, Coward's shooting mechanics tell me that he projects to get even better from beyond the arc. If that is true, he has a chance of becoming one of the most impactful offensive contributors in the country.
Playmaking:
Speaking of offensive contributions, scoring isn't the only thing that Coward does on this end of the floor. While his 1.7 assists per game may not jump off the page, he is actually a skilled secondary playmaker and connective passer. The reasons why his assist average isn't any higher are that he's a very selective passer, doing his best to not turn the ball over, and because he really didn't have to be much of a playmaker. First, he played alongside a solid playmaking point guard at Eastern Washington in Ellis Magnuson. Second, in a system that heavily relied on drawn up actions, Coward was normally the player finishing those plays. He simply wasn't in the best position to show off his playmaking acumen, but that doesn't mean he isn't capable in this department.
Coward generated assists in two primary ways while playing at Eastern Washington. The first way was the over-the-top entry pass. Much like how he received these passes when posting up smaller defenders, his teammates also found themselves in these positions as it was clearly a supported tactic by the coaching staff. Over time, he got pretty good at delivering these entry passes, placing them right in the breadbasket and allowing his teammates to get the easiest possible looks inside. While this isn't an overly difficult pass to throw, it's just another tool that he has added to his impressive toolbox.
The other way that Coward picks up assists is the classic drive and kick. This is probably his most translatable playmaking skill, as kickouts like this generate some of the most efficient shots in all of basketball. His ability to drive into the paint and collapse the defense leaves open shooters around the perimeter, and all he has to do is get them the ball. Players that have mastered this skill are successful at every level. It helps if a player can score from all three levels so that the defense can't afford to give up the drive, and as we've already covered, Coward is more than capable of this. If he can continue to get better scoring around the rim, his kickout playmaking is only going to improve. So, while Coward may not be capable of playing the point, he can add playmaking value to the overall picture of his team via passing such as what we just talked about.
Offensive Rebounding:
Normally I put the rebounding section in the defensive portion of these articles, but where Coward shines in the rebounding department is on the offensive end. His 6.7 rebounds per game is relatively standard, but he makes a major impact on the offensive glass. Whether it's with putbacks or just by giving his team an extra possession, he has found success crashing the offensive boards.
The easiest way to put Coward's rebounding acumen into words is to say that if you don't box him out, he's going to punish you. This is true, of course, but it's deeper than that. It brings me back to what I said earlier about his motor and competitive drive. He simply never stops making winning plays. When he is boxed out, he simply fights through it. That fighting that he has mastered on his post-ups to get in great scoring position translates to his ability to break through box outs. This offensive rebounding perfectly illustrates just who Coward is and tells you exactly why he has succeeded up to this point and will continue to succeed as he progresses in his career.
Defense:
As I mentioned earlier, before he was this uber-versatile three-level scorer with so many extra supplemental offensive skills, he was Eastern Washington's version of 2014 Kawhi Leonard. He came off the bench just to lockdown the opposing team's best player. He used his natural talents, fantastic motor, and high-level feel for the game to make a major impact on the defensive end. The thing is, when Coward became the Eagles' primary scoring option, he didn't lose those defensive traits. In fact, his steal and block averages actually increased (which in all fairness made sense considering he played significantly more). I am of the belief that no matter how well his offense translates to the next level, he will be an impactful defender. His natural athleticism and mentality almost guarantees this. Let's look at some of his defensive clips.
Coward is a solid point-of-attack defender on the perimeter, but where he really shines is in help. He's able to use his speed and instincts to be an excellent passing lane jumper, and when he does this, he immediately converts on the other end. The majority of his steals come in this way, and the majority of them end in this way. Sure, he's capable of poking a ball loose when facing a one-on-one matchup, but he's at his best in these open floor opportunities. That just happens to be a major theme in Coward's game, that ability to break loose in the open floor and turn defense into offense.
Then of course, when you're dealing with a player as athletic as Coward, you're going to have blocks. Honestly, this is the more likely result of his point-of-attack defensive possessions. He funnels them into the paint, and he swats their shots into the second row. In the first clip he finds himself standing in the paint, and the opposing driver makes the unfortunate decision to take a shot over Coward. Instead, Coward shows off his standing vertical to send that shot in the wrong direction. In the second clip he tracks his man all the way down the court, and at around the three-point line he decides he's going to block the soon-to-be shot attempt. So, what does he do? He simply sticks with his man before going up and easily blocking the shot off the backboard. Until Coward loses his elite athleticism at some point in his 30s, he's going to make these plays.
Summary:
Before I summarize Coward's game, I want to list out what I view to be his primary weaknesses. Coward is still a very raw talent, and guys like that tend to have more weaknesses at face value. However, he has already shown an amazing ability to quickly and properly improve, so this is a guy who you should be less worried about than you would be otherwise.
His biggest weakness at the moment is the lack of a consistent handle, which greatly limits his shot creation skills and driving abilities. His handle is loose at the moment, but it does seem like he has a good idea of what he's supposed to do, so I think this will come with time and practice.
Finishing under and around the rim is still inconsistent, mostly because he struggles to create easy shots for himself in that area. At the moment he's at his best stopping in the mid-range or attempting a dunk.
I would like to see him improve as an on-ball perimeter defender. He does a lot of funneling into the paint in an attempt to use his athleticism to contest shots, but when he does this, he allows his man to get to a more efficient spot on the court. I want to see him keeping his matchups outside more often.
His lack of inside scoring also limits his free-throw attempts. He's an excellent free-throw shooter, so he should be doing everything in his power to increase his attempts from the charity stripe.
He can face turnover issues at times, especially if he tries to play outside of his means. He's a solid secondary playmaker, but I don't see him being a strong primary playmaker at any point so I don't think he should try to be.
Has gotten better about not fouling throughout his career, but it's still something that can catch up to him occasionally. A big reason for this is that he prefers to defend perimeter players inside, who can get him off of his feet and draw fouls.
To summarize Coward's game, I would say he's an elite two-level scorer with some inside scoring capabilities. He's a guy who is very close to being the perfect picture of a well-rounded player on both ends of the floor. His clear history of improvement throughout his career tells me that he's a player who could go from being unheard of on the national scale to a top-tier prospect very quickly. If Washington State is prepared to properly develop the parts of his game that need polishing, they could have just struck gold. This is a player whose athletic traits and natural feel for the game got him in the door, and now his ability to grow as a player is going to push him to new heights. His offensive game has transformed throughout his two years at Eastern Washington, and he has always been a top-notch defender. He's the type of player that if he were to land in the right professional system, he could be much more than just a role player. This is why I believe that Cedric Coward is going to have some real draft buzz after his season at Washington State. I'm very excited to see how he performs this year against stiffer competition, and you should be too.
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