One of the most important things to remember as a basketball talent evaluator is that the large majority of the professional basketball ecosystem is composed by players who aren't NBA all-stars or Hall of Famers. That's why I really like to focus a lot of my scouting on players who I believe can play a role effectively at the next level. Winning on the margins is how championship rosters are built, and the best way to achieve that goal is to add as many high-level role players to your roster as possible in order to support your star talent. That said, a lot of those elite role players were some of the best players in the country throughout their collegiate careers, and projecting those college stars to be effective supplemental contributors can be difficult. That's why I get so excited when I see a collegiate star who very clearly has a skillset that will translate to the professional landscape. That's exactly what I see when I watch Princeton star Caden Pierce. The 2024 Ivy League Player of the Year has a game that revolves around efficient scoring, rebounding, passing, and elite feel for the game. These skills, some of which seem to be completely naturally occurring, tell me all I need to know about Pierce's ability to make an impact at the next level. Oh, and I almost forgot...he's only going into his junior season.
pc: Getty Images
Player Profile:
Caden Pierce is a 6'7" and 220lb forward who, as I mentioned, is entering his junior season with the Princeton Tigers of the Ivy League. A native of Glen Ellyn, Illinois, Pierce was born into an all-around athletic family. Both parents played collegiate sports at Northwestern, while his brother Justin now plays overseas basketball after finishing his college career at UNC, and his brother Alec is a wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. In his freshman campaign with the Tigers, Pierce was named Ivy League Rookie of the Year after leading Princeton in rebounding and finishing third in the conference in rebounds per game. This past season he further elevated his game and continued to accumulate accolades throughout the year. He was named the Ivy League Player of the Year, as well as being named to the Ivy League First Team and Lou Henson Mid-Major All-American Team. He put up numbers of 16.6 points per game, 9.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and .5 blocks on solid shooting splits of 54.6% from the field, 34.2% from beyond the arc, and 76.7% from the free-throw line. Now he looks forward to his junior season, as he will not only be the frontrunner for Ivy League Player of the Year, but also should receive some pre-season recognition as a possible All-American and 2025 NBA draftee.
Interior Scoring:
The majority of Pierce's points are scored in the paint, more specifically right at the rim. He's a super strong player with an imposing interior presence despite being a slightly undersized forward. He actually uses that slight size disadvantage to his advantage, as he's significantly faster and more agile than the majority of his matchups. For this reason, he generates a good amount of rim pressure by accelerating from beyond the arc. He's able to both blow past bigger defenders on drives toward the rim and maneuver around heavier footed interior bigs who may be planted inside. These skills are a big reason why he's such an impactful scorer, as his strength makes up for any size concerns while his wing-like build gives him a major advantage against traditional big men.
Here are some examples of Pierce using his elite acceleration to punish bigger defenders or flat-footed matchups such as in the last clip. Notice how all of these clips show Pierce generating these points either from beyond the arc or from just inside the perimeter. His teammates know to clear the paint whenever he finds himself in these positions, and once they do so he takes advantage of his new-found space. In these particular examples he finishes the possession incredibly safely, either throwing down a dunk or using the reverse layup to shield the shot attempt from the tracking defender. It's important to note his vertical pop while we're here, as that's another physical tool that allows him to play a lot bigger than he actually is. I would argue that he offers more noticeable vertical contributions on the offensive end than he does on defense, but when we cover his defense later in this article you will see how that jumping ability strengthens his game in a defensive capacity as well.
What makes a player great in a particular facet of the game is their versatility and ability to approach that part of the game in a multitude of ways. Pierce does just that when it comes to his interior scoring, as he's not only capable of applying rim pressure using his acceleration, but also by using his strength and footwork. He loves to post-up his matchup down low, and more often than not these possessions have positive results. If he's matched up against a smaller or similar sized opponent, he tends to use his strength to get good position under and around the rim. When he finds himself posting-up a traditional big or heavier footed defender, he's able to use his elite footwork to create the easiest shot possible. Being able to combine agility and acceleration from beyond the arc with strength and solid footwork on post-ups makes Pierce an incredibly efficient and effective interior scorer.
Above are two examples of skills that I believe are must haves if a player wants to be an effective interior scorer: pick-and-roll screening and scoring, and off-ball cutting. Pierce showed flashes of being solid both as a roller and as a cutter, but didn't do a ton of either. He actually tends to pop more than he does roll despite being a significantly better scorer at the rim than he is beyond the arc. Not to say that he shouldn't step out to take the three (we'll talk more about that in a minute) but I do think that he should be put into more pick-and-roll actions next season. As far as off-ball scoring goes, I'm fairly confident that if he was asked to do more of it, he could relatively easily. The issue is that he's involved in almost every play that Princeton runs, not allowing him to do much off-ball improv. Both of these skills are reliant on the system that Princeton runs and how they use Pierce, so I am going to rely on the flashes that he did show and say that I think he's effective in both of these aspects of the game.
The last grouping of clips in the interior scoring section are examples of what I will just call "tough buckets". An incredibly important aspect of being a good scorer around the rim is having soft touch on your shot attempts, which we will talk about more when we get to the mid-range scoring section. Caden Pierce has fantastic touch on his shot attempts, and he's able to combine that touch with other tools that we've already talked about such as acceleration and strength. He's also a very good tough shot maker, which you can see in the first clip where he finishes the layup after the help defender completely alters his shot motion mid-air. He's also very good at drawing fouls on possessions like these, as his smaller stature gives him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the whistle when he's attacking bigger opponents. He's not the world's greatest free-throw shooter, but he's good enough to generate quite a few points from the charity stripe.
In-Between Scoring:
As per usual, when a player doesn't have a true mid-range pullup game, I title this section "In-Between Scoring". What I mean by that is that the large majority of Pierce's points that come from this region of the floor come via turnaround push-shots and hook-shots. There's nothing wrong with that if it works, but I have a hard time defining this type of scoring as a true mid-range game. Most of these shots are also pretty close to the basket (which is a good thing when you're taking a lot of push-shots) so you could even argue that these attempts aren't even in the mid-range. All of that said, Pierce is super effective taking these shots, and he has basically added an extra layer to his interior scoring by cementing this aspect of his game as a legitimate threat.
As you can see, Pierce's in-between game is far more comparable to a traditional big's than it is a wing's. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, but I would like to see him continue to develop a stronger all-around mid-range scoring game. That said, you can trust him to convert on these shots and that tells me that I can trust his shooting touch long-term. He looks far more fluid and comfortable taking these shots than most frontcourt players do, and usually that fluidity is able to translate as you get farther from the basket. He's a capable outside shooter as well, so I expect his mid-range pullup game to eventually develop. For the time being, I don't mind him relying primarily on these shots, as they are efficient shots for him at the collegiate level. Once he takes a step up in competition in the future, these shots are going to be very difficult to cleanly get off simply because he'll be matched up against bigger and better post defenders.
Outside Shooting:
As I mentioned, Pierce is a capable outside shooter. I wouldn't consider him to be an elite outside shooter, but he's trusted to make his shots from beyond the arc. Basically none of his shots from this part of the floor are self-created, as most result from pick-and-pop actions or catch-and-shoot opportunities. I'm not confident that any real beyond-the-arc self-creation will ever develop for him, but if he can continue to make these shots at an efficient clip while increasing his volume, he will be a positive outside shooter long-term.
These clips give you a good feel for Pierce's outside shooting game. He's a strong screener, and because he's such a good interior scorer a lot of defenders completely forget that he can step out and knock down the three. He gets a ton of open looks from beyond the arc, and it's not because opponents are just letting him shoot. These clips also show off a few things that I think suggest he could develop a more versatile outside shooting game down the road. He's very good at back pedaling to his spots and taking shots while still on the move. He also has very traditional mechanics without any sort of hitch or weird motion. Frontcourt players with similar mechanics usually end up being solid shooters, and really all it comes down to is repetition. He took almost 3 threes per game this season, which is a solid number, but if he could maybe get that up to five while bettering his efficiency, you're looking at big time contribution from his outside game.
Playmaking & Passing:
It could be argued that the trait that separates Pierce the most from his peers is his playmaking acumen. He's not a primary playmaker by any means, but he's an absolutely fantastic connective passer and secondary playmaker. Most frontcourt playmakers are known for their ability to hit shooters on kickouts, but Pierce does most of his playmaking work as a stationary passer. I compare his passing to someone like PJ Hall for Clemson last year, who was one of my favorite passing bigs in his draft class, yet Pierce is a better passer than even Hall.
Pierce has two primary methods of generating offense for his teammates. The first, and perhaps the most impressive, is his ability to run the offense from above the perimeter and hit cutting teammates for easy looks. The majority of these plays hinge on a baseline cut and are clearly drawn up sets. That said, his ability to put the pass right in the breadbasket is what allows Princeton to run these plays in the first place. He's at his best delivering a pass over the top of the defense, but as you can see in the third clip, he's also capable of making the pass on the bounce. You don't have to have elite vision to make these passes, but you do have to have great passing feel and timing, and that's exactly what Pierce seems to have.
His second playmaking method and the one that I think adds the most layers to his overall game is his passing out of post-ups. Because he's such a good post-up player, he opens up a ton of space when he puts his back to the basket. This extra space often leaves teammates wide open for outside shots, and this is when his passing acumen truly shines. He delivers cross court passes on a dime to these open shooters, most of the time when his body is facing a totally different direction. This is where he shows off that he does have elite passing vision, and that he can see these openings above and around defenders. He creates a ton of easy offense with these looks, and as long as he remains a premier post-up scorer these opportunities will continue to present themselves.
Rebounding:
Pierce was 36th in the country in rebounds per game, and at 6'7" that's incredibly impressive. At the next level Pierce won't even play as a true four, so I am of the opinion he will end up being an elite rebounding wing. His real game changing rebounding comes on the offensive end, where he scooped up two rebounds per game. That may not sound like a crazy number, but that's two extra offensive possessions created simply by his elite rebounding acumen, that can be game changing stuff.
It's plays like these that show just how game changing a few offensive rebounds a game can be. Because he's such a fantastic rebounder, his teammates know they don't HAVE to crash the boards on most shots because he can play clean-up. This allows them to station themselves beyond the arc, where Pierce can find them for easy offense using his passing vision. If he generates six points per game off of these offensive rebounds and kickouts, that could win or lose a close game. While he may not be this dynamic under the hoop at the next level due to his size, he will always be an above average rebounder for his position.
Let's not forget that Pierce is an elite scorer around the rim, which directly translates whenever he grabs rebounds on the offensive end. What makes these finishes even more impressive is that he's finishing around a herd of opponents. He has to use pump fakes and contort around the rim in order to find the easiest looks possible. Again, this is something that I am certain will translate to any level of the game, and that certainty is incredibly important when evaluating his future as a professional.
Defense:
I'm not sure I would consider Pierce to be some sort of lockdown defensive presence, but I'd argue that he's an overall positive on this end. He tends to be in the right spot, and I never saw any signs that his IQ doesn't translate to his defensive game. He picks up steals and disrupts plays just by being in the correct position and staying aware throughout a play. He has some rim protection abilities using his vertical pop and timing, but I wouldn't say he's a fantastic rim protector solely because of his size. His strength is a massive plus on this end of the floor, as bigger opponents are unable to simply overpower him around the basket. Again, I think his effort and overall awareness combined with some of his natural physical tools makes for a well above average defensive game.
He averages 1.2 steals per game, so you see plays like these basically every night. You can see from both of these examples what I mean when I talk about how good his positioning and timing are. The first play is the one that really stands out to me, because Pierce has to be fully aware of what's going on around him in order to make that play. The driving opponent could have very well taken that layup, but Pierce reads his body language and predicts the kickout. You don't have to be some sort of physical specimen to make defensive plays like this, you just have to have a mind for the game.
Here are a few examples of him picking up blocks, something that he admittedly does less than he snags steals and deflections. The first two clips show blocks that I think are extensions of his deflection game, as he basically just sticks with his matchup and gets a hand on the shot. The first clip gives a great example of his ability to get vertical, which likely correlates to why he only averages 1.9 fouls per game. The last two clips are what I would say is the closest he gets to being a real rim protector, especially the last clip where he comes over in help to pick up the block. Overall, he's not elite at any specific facet of defense, but when you look at his entire body of work, he's a pretty effective defender.
Summary:
Before I summarize Pierce's game, I want to list out any and all weaknesses that I saw when watching his film. As always, I have to say that there's nothing wrong with having lapses in your game, even the world's best players are far from perfect. With that said, Pierce's game is far more advanced than most players heading into their junior season of college, which is exactly why I decided to scout him in the first place.
Desperately needs to add layers to his game that allow him to play more as a wing and less as a power forward.
These layers include a true mid-range pull-up game and a more efficient three-point shooting game on increased volume.
Not a stellar athlete, but in certain situations looks more athletically sound than I actually think he is (see the dunking clips early in the article that are pretty impressive).
Prefers to avoid contact on his attempts around the rim, which isn't the worst thing in the world, but I would like to see him draw more shooting fouls.
His playmaking load should be increased. This isn't a weakness, more like an issue that the Princeton coaching staff should try to solve. He's too good of a passer and doesn't turn the ball over to not have a greater playmaking load.
I would like to see some improvements from him as a pick-and-roll screener. A.) He needs to roll to the rim significantly more often than he pops and B.) I want to see how good of a kickout passer he is on the roll.
Unless the opposing four is also undersized, he needs to get used to guarding threes basically full-time. These are the players he will match up against at the next level, and he needs to get used to their faster pace of play and higher level of athleticism.
To summarize Caden Pierce's game, this guy is the definition of a future professional glue guy. He's also the definition of a lifetime athlete who has fantastic feel for everything that happens on a basketball court. It really doesn't get much more well-rounded than Caden Pierce, and that's going to be incredibly important at the next level. He could've entered the draft this year, and even if he didn't get drafted, he would have made a rotation in his rookie season. Instead, he continues to develop, and if he indeed does that, I fully expect him to be in draft conversations throughout the 2025 cycle. He does too many things well, and he does things such as score around the rim, rebound, and pass at an elite level. When you combine as many supplemental skills as Pierce has with three elite skills, you're bound to find that a player is primed to make a name for himself at the professional level.
コメント