Nothing gets basketball fans excited quite like some good ole' fashion 2000's hoops highlights. It may not have been the golden era of the sport, but there's an argument to be made that it was the most fun to watch. Dazzling personalities displayed electric playstyles to create the perfect mix for an entertaining watch on a nightly basis. Players like Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas were at the peak of their powers. Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki were revolutionizing their position. Finally, Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Carmelo Anthony were getting their careers started. When you look at those names there's one thing that stands out as the obvious commonality, those fellas loooooove their mid-range shot.
About a decade ago, basketball dorks figured out that the mid-range shot is the least efficient shot in basketball. However, there are very few things as pretty as a smooth mid-range jumper, and when you do it well you can make a career out of it. The beauty of college basketball is that, for the most part, coaches couldn't care less what nerdy NBA statisticians have to say about which playstyles are the most effective (for better or for worse). This allows us to see players like Murray State's senior guard/forward Rob Perry succeed at the college level. With a skillset almost identical to players we saw thrive fifteen years ago, Perry has been dominant as the first option for a Murray State team trying to find their rhythm as the new face in the Missouri Valley Conference.
pc: via Murray State University Athletics
Obviously the first thing I want to touch on is what I've already addressed, Perry's acumen two steps inside the three-point line. In five games this season, averaging 15.6 points per game, 28% of his points come from the mid-range. What makes this chunk of his scoring so unique is that almost all of these shots are created by Perry himself. Rob doesn't have an incredibly high usage rate for the Racers, as he has the ball in his hands less than the two floor general guards, Brian Moore Jr. and Jacobi Wood. However, when it comes to his mid-range game he manages to convert his small usage rate into almost exclusively self created shots. This is a trait that is significantly less common than it was a decade ago, something that is very valuable when it comes to picking apart opposing team's scouting reports.
Watch this clip of Perry getting into his mid-range jumper. You'll see how he creates so much space despite only being 6'4". He immediately gets the defender off balance using the cross over before quickly accelerating toward the rim. The defender clearly anticipates the drive and drifts with Perry, and that's when Perry completely stops his momentum to create a ton of space between himself and the moving defender. This shot that should have been heavily contested is basically wide open, as the defender's hand isn't even in the air when the ball leaves Perry's hands.
Here's another example of Perry creating his own mid-range shot. The difference here is the defender does a better job of contesting the shot. Perry once again uses acceleration and deceleration to stun his defender, but here he's facing a lengthier opponent who is able to get a hand up in time to contest. So what does Perry do? He slightly falls backward to create space. That leads to this shot having more arch, allowing it to get over the outreached arm of the defender.
In this next video you'll see Perry completely freeze his defender with multiple dribble moves and superb footwork. He incorporates that same start-and-stop motion that he used in the first clip, but this time he does so in both directions while tossing a step back in the middle. This combination of moves leaves his defender helpless, and once again Perry ends up with an uncontested wide-open shot.
Finally, in this last mid-range clip you'll see the defender respect his three-point shooting a little too much leading to Perry taking advantage. A reach in from the defender is all Perry needed to move inside the arch and get to his spot. The defender is left on the ground, and Perry is left with another uncontested middy.
Speaking of respecting his shot from beyond the arch, it does make sense. Perry actually scores more from three than from anywhere else on the floor, with the three-point shot making up 38% of his total workload. What makes it less impressive than his mid-range game is that, for the most part, he operates as a catch and shoot player from three. However, this allows him to flourish from the mid-range, because defenders HAVE to respect his shot. In addition to this, he can get creative from deep on occasion.
In this clip Perry trails the play before collecting the pass and taking the three over a big man who's just a tad late on his rotation. It doesn't look like much, but there are few things more valuable in basketball today than a solid catch-and-shoot three point shooter.
Now, onto the Rob Perry from three that truly passes the eye test. On occasion he will deploy the same shot creation skills he uses from the mid-range from three. He doesn't use any special dribble moves, but he completely disables his defender. The ghost screen pulls his defender just a few feet farther from him, and that's all the space he needs. He also never looks at the rim until it's time to shoot, throwing both defenders off and giving him an open shot. It really is the little things.
The final layer of Perry's three-level offense is, of course, the third level. His finishing around the rim is top notch. He uses his size to his advantage, absorbing contact to make it very difficult to contest his shot. If only he was taller, he'd be a monster at this facet of the game.
Here he finishes through contact and draws the foul. He's a cannonball heading to the rim, leading to a ton of free buckets at the line.
This finish is the perfect example of absorbing contact, which I think is his best trait when attacking the rim. This doesn't land him on the line, but it very well could have. He manages to get his defender on his hip after the pump fake, and gets the bucket over both the rim protector and trailer.
That's about the extent of his offensive excellency. Other strengths of his game include but are not limited to:
Solid rebounder, both defensively and offensively
Very good at avoiding fouls
Solid defender against slow-footed players
Now to talk about his weaknesses. Everybody has em' and he's no different. Lucky for him, almost all of his weaknesses can be fixed.
Firstly, the one thing he can't change, his height. He's only 6'4", and while he's listed as a guard his playstyle lends itself more to the small forward position. He's just too small to guard most opposing forwards. The issue is he's too slow to guard fast footed guards. I will say, in the age of small ball it is not unheard of for shorter players to play up a few positions. Draymond Green gets significant center minutes in the league at 6'6". If there was any era for Perry to thrive in at his size it's the modern era.
Now onto the rest of his shortcomings, which I will just list off and not delve too deep into...
Not a very explosive athlete
Not great at moving off-ball on offense
Not an elite defender, but not necessarily bad either
Inconsistent free-throw shooter
Poor shot selection at times
Turnover prone when he has the ball for extended periods of time
That's about it as far as weaknesses are concerned. When you look at that list you see several things that are very very common among college players. The only things that are legitimately concerning are obviously the size concerns I just brought up and the inconsistent free-throw shooting. However, he's had very solid free-throw shooting seasons in the past. Everything else on that list can be polished over time.
So what's the final conclusion on Perry's status as a prospect? Well, he's obviously not an NBA draft guy. He's a fifth year senior and he's already 23. He would have to be on a whole other level to get drafted after this season. However, he's a guy that should get serious looks from the G-League and overseas leagues. This is a guy that is still developing despite his age. He hasn't exactly played for programs that have fantastic development programs. You put him on a G-League team with a legitimate development system and philosophy and there's no telling how his game will translate. What you are getting is a very experienced player who's very unique playstyle makes him incredibly difficult to scout. As the season moves along, I fully expect his name to start showing up more and more in scouting circles. At the end of the day, he's a guy I wouldn't mind taking a chance on.
(clips via Murray State University Athletics)
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